PEAK-OIL GAME-CHANGER

2014: Rise in global energy prices and other commodity prices start a new cy- cle of indebtedness for many European countries. This impacts upon people’s lives in the form of soaring interest rates as well as more expensive food, trans- portation and electricity prices.

2016: Many seminars debat- ing the European debt crisis concern themselves increas- ingly with the revealed link be- tween a country’s high energy dependency and public debt.

Some of the large districts here in Amsterdam are completely car free. This means I can enjoy it either by walking or cycling
better than ever before.

I thoroughly enjoy living in the “ten minute city” that we have here in Stockholm! I don’t have to worry about spending time in transit as all the services I need are just ten min- utes away.

2018: Several European countries reform their economic policies and governmental structures. After the reform, energy and natural resource poli- cies form the core of economic policy.

2023: Oil prices continue to rise beyond belief, pushing great numbers of logistics companies out of the market or forcing them to sell their operations to the few remain- ing large ones. As a result, a small number of firms dominate transport markets in many countries, which ultimately leads to significant price increases.

2023: Oil prices become very volatile, new peak prices are reached in four consecutive years and there are occasional supply shortages. These drastic price shifts persuade people to start exploring more local and secure production alternatives.

2025: The financial market system is in turmoil, resulting in a new wave of bankruptcies and bailouts of big companies in strategic sectors (logistics, banks, construction industry and retail).

2026: People start to look for towns and cities that are capable of implementing smart adaptation plans that help their inhabitants cope with peak-oil better than people in other parts of the country.

2028: There are no safe havens for investments now that countries agree on limiting and regulat- ing trade in commodities derivatives. The vol- ume of trading on the global financial markets decreases.

I love living in my Danish town. We haven’t had to worry about buying en- ergy in ages. I know lots of other towns that enjoy the same situation.

2032: People increasingly put their money into land and property that they themselves or their families intend to use. Specifically in Italy, people are very excited about this return to local values.

2034: Adaptation to new conditions after peak-oil happens quite uneven- ly – not only because some countries and regions have more resources, but because some benefit from better starting points than others in terms of natural resources, previous experiments, or more agile innova- tion systems.

2035: Some nations and regions benefit from the decline of global markets. Many resource- rich but previously underdeveloped African, Asian and South American nations have been able to collect investments and taxes from international companies harnessing their resources.

2035: A number of forerunner regions in Europe, China and the USA have been able to develop well-functioning local energy and food systems. Many of them are practically en- ergy independent and have replaced many energy-intensive import products with local, less energy-intensive ones (e.g. concrete and steel with timber and stone as construction material). Northern Europe is a prime example.

2037: The EU is putting more power and resources into transferring knowledge in the field of “Local Loops management”. However, the global economy has been stagnant for over a decade, unemploy- ment is high in many European regions and the power of national governments is eroding even as there is less public resource to invest.

I have allocated a set amount of money each month for expensive foreign products, such as
coffee and tea. Prices are high, as the transport market is domi- nated by a few global companies.

2040: Many countries that used to have a low standard of living have managed to raise the general level of their infrastructure, education and health care. This encourages many professionals from the developed world to migrate to these countries as international markets start to decline. The skills gap between “developed” and “developing” countries and regions starts to narrow.

Just last year, we managed to turn some old city railway tracks into state-of-the-art bicycle lanes. Cycling is a pleasure in Bratislava now!

2040: After years of negotiations, cities agree on a new global financial regime based on local currencies and tangible assets such as energy, strategic minerals or skills.

2043: There is still a significant amount of global trade in energy, food and other basic commodities, but compared with levels in 2012, many of the most flourishing regions do not import many tangible goods. In these regions a discourse on the “crisis of 2020s” is already part of collective memory as people consider themselves to be part of a new era of development.