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Governing the Commons
Go back to the front page of the scenarios.Governing the Commons is a scenario mostly in digital reality that helps people to break free from many cultural constraints and, eventually, to reach sustainability. Ubiquitous computing enables the smart use of resources and, at the same time, redirects people’s behaviour and focus of attention from material consumption and their physical surroundings to interaction in the digital realm. People abandon many institu- tions of the 20th century, liberate themselves in order to lead more meaningful lives and engage in new forms of collaboration.It takes place in four different narratives: The 3rd industrial revolution, Ubitech economy, Better work creates well-being and Wikidemocracy. Please note that the scenario pages are still in beta phase.
THE 3RD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
2015: The first 3D printers for the mass market arrive. At first, consumers have to buy specifically packed materials for the printers to work. They are inspired by work at MIT’s Fab Labs. Soon consumers start to come up with their own solutions.
My son never buys anything that is mass-produced. He wants to customise it all by himself. I think all of his clothes are custom made.
2017: The Christmas markets see a flurry of excitement over 3D printing.
2018: Customised 3D printers that can use recycled materials start to dominate the markets and more traditional com- panies struggle to compete with goods produced at home.
“My kids say there are enough excit- ing things to discover in digital schools, virtual tourism services and augmented reality games. You don’t need to travel to have new experiences as I once did.”
2024: Consumer brands that have not yet started to operate sustainably start to overproduce. This cycle dramatically decreases the quality of the products and more people turn towards self-customization.
2026: Due to the 3D-printing market, the Nasdaq succeeds the Dow Jones as the globally relevant market index.
To be honest, I haven’t seen a new building constructed in my town in the past five years. Instead, all of the office buildings have been retrofitted for residential use.
I don’t even have to use repair services as I can just upgrade my modular appliance by printing off a new part for it.
2040: Different interest groups provide blueprints for individuals to gather resources and “print” their own items, although in highly customised ways. Most corpora- tions have been succeeded by such interest groups.
2045: Newly set standards are formed for digital networks to serve as a platform for provid- ing manufacturing blueprints. The internet is one of these ad-hoc networks of knowledge exchange.
2049: Consumers recycle everything in their “printers.” The only traditional factory left in Europe produces apartment block- scale 3D printers.
My wife and I have some old cooking books that we use for home decoration as we have no other practical use for them. It amuses us that so much em- phasis was once placed on the prepara- tion of food. Instead, we just use our 3D printers to print synthetic food that has very high nutrition value.
UBITECH ECONOMY
2014: Social media dominates global narratives. Peer-produced content starts to emerge in the global media. The events of the 2011 Arab Spring highlight the growing importance of accessible global information networks. People get increasingly acclimated to the idea of existing online and building their personal identity through virtual means. Media moderated reality hits new heights as the internet starts to define everyday life and connect communities worldwide, producing more interest- based social groups that only ever connect in the virtual realm.
2017: The use of mesh networks (community data systems) is spreading to recycling and green “interest groups”. Initially these sub- networks were developed in Living Labs and were used by the anti-corporate activists of the 2010s economic downturn.
2018: Thanks to crowd-sourcing, we know that the economic impact of nearly every- thing: Ecopidia is created. Eventually this transforms into GEKS, the Global Exchange and Knowledge System, a tool that con- nects information and helps support sus- tainability worldwide.
2019: Thanks to GEKS, diverse data regarding peoples’ homes is gath- ered. Based on this data, inhabitants receive feed- back which encourages home repaires that help to maximize energy efficiency.
2020: The biggest company online launches its “smart life” and “smart cities” services offering several programmes that help make smart choices regarding things like healthy and resource efficient food, identifying the most sustainable mobility choices, setting the optimal temperature and lighting levels in your home or deciding when to retrofit your house or call someone to repair your inefficient fridge.
A friend of mine came to take a look at my apart- ment with his heat camera. She checked my energy consumption and I ordered energy retrofitting from her on the spot!
2024: City 3.0 and the “internet of things”: sending information to apartment block-based 3D print- ers in order to create any objects e.g. computers. Reproduction starts at city level, which defines the structure of the physical space.
2027: A car sharing company that uses an “access” business model rivals traditional market leaders in mobility and acquires one of the traditional car companies.
I only buy books with virtual money. It makes no sense for me to use “real” currencies anymore to buy books.
2029: 80% of Estonian citizens own a per- sonal appliance that optimizes their mobility, diets and electricity consumption through constant recognition and feedback of their consumer choices. These personal appli- ances, for example, help people to optimise public transportation use and enable different types of vehicle and ride sharing schemes.
2031: Smart technologies and augmented-reality services have produced a new business sector that doubles its size each year for the next three years. According to studies this sector employs eight million people Europe-wide.
2032: Copyright is found to be redundant, as the best method to map solutions is to crowdsource inputs to problems from relevant online communities. An explosion of immaterial creativity follows.
“I spend most of my time very efficiently. Even when travelling, I’m completing a multitude of different microtasks.”.
2036: People move beyond the division between real- life and virtual identities; whatever happens in one automatically follows into the other as well. People -not corporations- are in charge of the networks.
I design my home’s new interior by putting my old chair into my printer so that I can get a new one as a result.
2042: A global act for self-surveil- lance takes place, initiated by many of the peer-to-peer networks. Every digital item connected to the global network operates within sustainable parameters. Exceeding these parameters is only possible outside the digital realm (which for the majority of the people is impossible).
BETTER WORK CREATES WELL-BEING
2015: The crises that started in 2008 eventually changes production structures and people’s working patterns, especially in many European countries. Fewer and fewer people work permanently for one company. Diversification in work patterns increases.
2016: Companies promoting sustainability begin to dominate the markets: Several technology compa- nies introduce Green Earth policies and sustainability indexes, as they are seen as as the only way to gaina a position as market leader.
2017: A Europe-wide study reveals that sus- tainability and ethics are the main motivational drivers for workers.
2019: Companies have embraced sustain- able practices in order to increase employ- ee motivation. Step by step this leads to a behaviour change in peoples’ lives as well. Work and home behaviours start to overlap with each other.
2020: Companies redesign their human resources strategies as an increasing number of talented individuals start looking for entre- preneurial opportunities.
“I found your flat to be very inefficient in energy use,” states an energy repair service that has monitored my apartment.
2023: Augmented-reality services become avail- able in 300 European cities. These services alter world-views and lifestyles significantly as the need to travel and construct decreases.
2025: Based on the citizens’ acts of the early 2020s, all EU countries reform their taxation to include environmental impacts in prices.
I’m a part of a No-Impact Group that was formed 5 years ago. It really showed people that it is possible to live within planetary limits.
2026: A new company that facilitates different microwork opportunities, is among the big- gest companies in Europe.
2027: Recognition is given to people in ways that do not make narrow assumptions about individual’s work.
A friend of mine came to take a look at my apart- ment with his heat camera. She checked my energy consumption and I ordered energy retrofitting from her on the spot!
My friend who’s been partially disabled for the past 10 years is an active participant in society, as digital tools have empowered him to access information and services as efficiently as anyone could imagine.
2033: Value is crowdsourced through every piece of meaningful or meaningless action. It is gathered through different sensors and now exceeds the amount of time people spend explicitly work- ing. The virtual environment has made it possible for neighbours not to compete within the material realm, which leads to, incredible amounts of new online content creation.
This old office building is renovated and will become a highly energy efficient home for many families. These are among the most wanted homes available!
“My father studied bio-engineering and organic farming and now he is a cook. Every morning he looks for micro-job offers he can respond to, from coaching young farmers to doing sustainable assessments of the food chain. And he loves it!”
WIKIDEMOCRACY
2013: Boycotts of politics taking world- wide help tackle climate change. Global treaties are out of reach, which drives people to express their frustration with governments’ and corporations’ inability to genuinely intervene in the increasingly apparent effects of climate change and rising resource prices.
2015: A global network of energy- conscious consumers starts openly using electric cars, smart consumption solutions and to monitor their personal everyday climate impact.These early adopters help create growing platforms for emerging technologies and momen- tum for supportive policies.
When I look outside the window, I can enjoy green walls blooming with flowers, the pump cleaning the water, the solar panels slowly turning to the sun.
2019: Earth treaty by UN: national democ- racy has to respect the limits of the earth.
I can use the highly efficient urban mobility sys- tem to buy groceries and have them delivered straight to my home.
2021: A network of energy conscious consumers who have openly published their climate impact information, propose as a citizens’ act to scale up their behaviour. Hackathon events power similar citizen initiatives across all EU countries. The goal is to reform taxation so that it supports sustainable consumer choices.
2025: People across differ- ent networks find a wide range of means to secure an income by doing differ- ent kinds of microwork.
Every village and suburb has a remote co-working space that allows people to get together, share thoughts and reduce the need to commute. Every municipality sets up these spaces for people to work or even to get new jobs, based on earlier shared brainstorming session and cooperation.
2026: User group oriented hospitals emerge and people who share similar genetic risk profiles for certain diseases help provide best possible care, knowledge and reaction time for its customers.
2027: The example of peer power that produced the famous citizen movement for sustainability in the early 2020s, inspires many more of these citizens’ acts. Large numbers of people draft citizen movements that are based on noted best practices – these movements soon start to shape mainstream lifestyles.
2030: Universal transla- tor apps make it pos- sible for communities worldwide to communicate with everyone everywhere.
“I often log on to these participative governance programs in order to meet people with whom I share common
interests. We regularly propose initiatives that later become the basis of new policies.”
2033: User group oriented hospitals initiate a citizens’ act to allocate most available healthcare funds to support- ing these hospitals specifically.
A new book comes out describing how the last of the political parties is still hanging on in there. I find these parties to be a rem- nant of past. Now political decisions start from, and are intimately linked to, everyday practices.
2034: The climate change denial of the 21st century is viewed as some- thing comparable to the witch hunts of the 17th century.
2040: Sustainability is not even talked about anymore as by 2034 global knowledge of what can and cannot be done within the boundaries of one Earth became apparent to everyone. What were seen as sustainable lifestyles in 2012 are simply rational choices in 2040.
I am a member of a health centre with my peers. This specific centre is optimised for people who have the same genetic risk profiles as I do.
I monitor my health constantly through these sensors that are installed in my arm. It’s a relief. Whatever happens, my hospital is aware of my condition and I save a lot of money, energy and effort since I don’t have to do the evaluations myself. I can trust my doctors to do them – no more futile visits to the hospital!
2044: Citizen movements replace traditional political mechanisms in decision-making. Peer-to-peer power forms the basis of “wikidemocracy.”
2046: The value of life comes from networks. To exist is to be part of a specific network. People build their reputations virtually and those with a good reputation can join networks more easily than others. While the rules and guidelines of different communities differ, interact- ing in the virtual realm is one of the basic forms of human behaviour.
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© 2013 Created by Simo Vassinen.
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